To: Interested Parties
From: Lake Research Partners
Re: Summary Findings
Date: March 18, 2006
The following memo outlines the key survey findings1 on voters’ attitudes
toward removing the Florida Keys’ Area of Critical State Concern designation.
Key Findings
- Opposition to removing the Keys’ Critical Concern status is remarkably
high and intense. Public opinion at this point is overwhelmingly against
de-designation.
- Voters start out opposing this proposal by a 52 point margin
(73 oppose to 22 percent support) and nearly two-thirds of the electorate
strongly oppose removing the Critical Concern status.
- Voters are decidedly negative toward candidates who support this
proposal. Two-thirds of voters say they would be much less likely to support
a candidate for elected office who favors removing the Critical Concern
status.
- Voters report a high level of familiarity with the Critical Concern
designation and the majority say they have heard of the effort to remove
this protection.
- Overdevelopment in the Keys and in South Florida is a particular
source of concern to voters and they express a clear desire to protect
open space and undeveloped areas in the Keys.
Summary Findings
Context
- Voters in the Keys hold a generally positive view of the quality
of the environment, with two-thirds expressing a positive view (18 percent
excellent, 48 percent good). Roughly three in ten (28 percent) rate environmental
quality as just fair and only 6 percent say it is poor.
- These positive feelings notwithstanding, voters believe the environment
is on the decline. Slightly more than half (52 percent) say the environment
has gotten worse compared to five years ago, while 36 percent say it has
stayed about the same and only 8 percent feel that it has gotten better.
- Overdevelopment in the Keys and in South Florida is a particular
source of concern to voters. Fully two-thirds say that there is too much
commercial and residential development in the Florida Keys and three quarters
say there is too much development in South Florida generally. A quarter
of voters say the amount of development in the Keys is about right and
21 percent say this is true of South Florida. Very few say there is not
enough development (7 percent say not enough development in the Keys;
3 percent say not enough in South Florida).
- Additionally, there is a strong consensus around the importance
of preserving space and undeveloped areas in the Keys. Three quarters
(76 percent) place a significant amount of importance on this issue (44
percent extremely important, 31 percent very important).
Area of Critical Concern Designation
- Voters report a high degree of familiarity with the Keys’ designation
as an Area of Critical State Concern (74 percent familiar, 38 percent
very) and a majority (57 percent) say they have heard of the effort to
remove this protection.
- There is intense opposition to removing the Critical Concern
designation at the outset of the survey. Over seven in ten (73 percent)
oppose this proposal, with 65 percent expressing strong opposition.2
- Strong opposition to removing the Critical Concern designation
cuts across the political spectrum. Over eight in ten Democrats (84 percent)
oppose this proposal, while two thirds (67 percent) of both Republicans
and independents are opposed.
To: Phil Shannon and Kristin Oblander
From: Lake Research Partners
Re: Summary Findings
Date: March 18, 2006
The following memo outlines the key survey findings1 on voters’
attitudes toward removing the Florida Keys’ Area of Critical State
Concern designation.
Key Findings
- Opposition to removing the Keys’ Critical Concern status is
remarkably high and intense. Public opinion at this point is overwhelmingly
against de-designation, indicating that your campaign is in good
shape to beat this attack on the Keys’ Critical Concern status.
- Initially, voters oppose this proposal by a 52-point margin
(73 oppose to 22 percent support). Nearly two-thirds of the electorate
strongly oppose removing the Critical Concern status and this strong
opposition grows to 75 percent after a simulated debate and messages
against removing this protection from the Keys.
- Strong opposition to removing the Critical Concern designation
cuts across the political spectrum. Over eight in ten Democrats (84
percent) oppose this proposal, while two thirds (67 percent) of both
Republicans and independents are opposed.
- Voters report a high level of familiarity with the Critical
Concern designation and the majority says they have heard of the
effort to remove this protection.
- The most likely outcomes of removing the Critical Concern designation,
according to voters, are that roads, highways, and bridges in the
Keys will be congested and that developers will build high-priced
high-rises. They also identify these two possible outcomes as being
of highest concern.
- Overdevelopment in the Keys and in South Florida is a particular
source of concern to voters and they express a clear desire to protect
open space and undeveloped areas in the Keys.
- Voters are decidedly negative toward candidates who support
this proposal. Two-thirds of voters say they would be much less likely
to support a candidate for elected office who favors removing the
Critical Concern status.
- Messages against removing the designation that resonate most
focus on developers who will come in and develop high-priced condos
and cause traffic problems, higher taxes, and make hurricane evacuation
more difficult.
- Other top message elements include focusing on the Keys’ natural
and pristine environment that is protected by the Critical Concern
designation, as well as arguments that removing this designation
will allow development to run rampant and will do nothing to solve
the problem of affordable housing, and that it is premature to remove
the designation while water quality and open space problems still
exist.
Summary Findings
Context
- Voters in the Keys hold a generally positive view of the quality
of the environment, with two-thirds expressing a positive view (18
percent excellent, 48 percent good). Roughly three in ten (28 percent)
rate environmental quality as just fair and only 6 percent say it
is poor.
- These positive feelings notwithstanding, voters believe the
environment is on the decline. Slightly more than half (52 percent)
say the environment has gotten worse compared to five years ago,
while 36 percent say it has stayed about the same and only 8 percent
feel that it has gotten better.
- Overdevelopment in the Keys and in South Florida is a particular
source of concern to voters. Fully two-thirds say that there is too
much commercial and residential development in the Florida Keys and
three quarters say there is too much development in South Florida
generally. A quarter of voters say the amount of development in the
Keys is about right and 21 percent say this is true of South Florida.
Very few say there is not enough development (7 percent say not enough
development in the Keys; 3 percent say not enough in South Florida).
- Additionally, there is a strong consensus around the importance
of preserving space and undeveloped areas in the Keys. Three quarters
(76 percent) place a significant amount of importance on this issue
(44 percent extremely important, 31 percent very important).
Area of Critical Concern Designation
- Voters report a high degree of familiarity with the Keys’ designation
as an Area of Critical State Concern (74 percent familiar, 38 percent
very) and a majority (57 percent) say they have heard of the effort
to remove this protection.
- There is intense opposition to removing the Critical Concern
designation at the outset of the survey. Over seven in ten (73 percent)
oppose this proposal, with 65 percent expressing strong opposition.2
- Strong opposition to removing the Critical Concern designation
cuts across the political spectrum. Over eight in ten Democrats (84
percent) oppose this proposal, while two thirds (67 percent) of both
Republicans and independents are opposed.
- After a simulated debate and messages against removing this
protection, opposition becomes even stronger and more intense, with
75 percent strongly opposed (82 percent opposed overall).
- Voters are decidedly negative toward candidates who support
this proposal. Two-thirds of voters say they would be much less likely
to support a candidate for elected office who favors removing the
Critical Concern status.
Outcomes of Removing Critical Concern Designation
- Three quarters or more of voters see each of the negative outcomes
as likely should the Critical Concern status be removed. They say
it is most likely that roads, highways, and bridges in the keys will
be congested (75 percent very likely) and that developers will build
high-priced high-rises (74 percent). Voters also identify these two
outcomes as being most concerning as well (74 percent and 79 percent
very concerned respectively).
- Majorities also believe other possible outcomes – like harm
to natural areas, animal habitat and water, less affordable housing,
increased taxes, and insufficient hurricane plans – are likely and
concerning outcomes of this proposal.
| |
Percent Very Likely (likely overall) |
Percent Very Concerned
(likely overall) |
| Roads, highways and bridges in the Keys will be congested with traffic
from the increased population |
75% (91%) |
74% (87%) |
| Developers will build high-priced, high-rise condos |
74% (86%) |
79% (84%) |
| Natural and pristine areas in the Keys will be harmed |
65% (80%) |
70% (89%) |
| The Florida Keys will end up looking like an extension of Miami Beach |
60% (78%) |
73% (83%) |
| Sensitive wildlife habitat will be destroyed |
62% (83%) |
64% (83%) |
| Current hurricane evacuation plans will be insufficient to support the
increased population |
60% (75%) |
63% (78%) |
| There will be less affordable housing available |
62% (78%) |
58% (73%) |
| Taxes will be increased to support the increased population and the services
they need |
58% (76%) |
61% (78%) |
| Water quality will be compromised |
63% (76%) |
65% (83%) |
Positioning and Messages
- In an engaged debate, both pro Critical Concern arguments
clearly trump the opposition’s argument. The argument that removing
the Critical Concern designation would give developers free reign
to develop natural areas for new commercial and residential uses
works slightly better than the argument that it is premature
to remove the designation (66 percent to 24 percent vs. 61 percent
to 26 percent).3
- The top message tested is one that
focuses on developers who will come in and develop high-priced
condos and cause traffic problems, higher taxes, and
make hurricane evacuation more difficult. Other top message elements focus on the Critical
Concern designation being necessary for preserving the Florida
Keys natural and pristine environment, that removing this
designation will allow development to run rampant and will
do nothing to solve the problem of affordable housing, and
that it is premature to remove the designation while water
quality and open space problems still exist. People find
convincing a government corruption argument that removing
the designation will cause local and state government to
turn their backs on the needs of the Keys.
- The message that resonates least is the argument that Critical
Concern designation has provided the area with millions of
dollars from the state for buying land and wastewater treatment.
| Messages |
Percent Very Convincing (convincing overall) |
| Without the Area of Critical Concern status, developers will come in
and develop high-priced condo communities in the Keys and will cause problems
like increased traffic congestion, higher taxes, and will make hurricane
evacuation more difficult due to the increased population* |
69% (82%) |
| Maintaining the critical concern designation is necessary for preserving
the way of life in the Florida Keys and keeping this one of the most pristine
and natural areas in the State* |
60% (79%) |
It is premature and irresponsible to take this area off the Critical
Concern list. We still face problems in the Keys, like water quality
and protection of open space, which will only be made worse if Critical
Concern status is removed.* |
59% (79%) |
| If the Governor decides to remove the Florida Keys’ Critical Concern
designation, development will run rampant and the Keys will end up looking
like the rest of South Florida* |
59% (73%) |
| Don’t be fooled – supporters of removing the Critical Concern status
say that this will allow more residential development and improve the availability
of affordable housing, when what it will really do is pave the way for
big developers to come in and put up high priced condos and resorts. This
does nothing to solve the problem of the high cost of housing in Florida.* |
57% (76%) |
| Once we are no longer an area of critical concern to the state, it will
be much easier for both the local and state governments to forget our concerns.
Developers and lobbyists will start buying politicians and making deals
and politics will get even more corrupt than it is now. |
57% (76%) |
| Critical concern status has not only benefited the Florida Keys by controlling
growth, but has also provided the area with hundreds of millions of dollars
in state aid for buying environmentally sensitive land and tens of millions
more for wastewater treatment* |
48% (73%) |
| *Split sampled questions |
Footnotes
1 Lake Research designed and conducted this survey of 400 registered likely voters on the Florida Keys. They survey was conducted by telephone on March 12th and 13th, 2006. Margin of error for the entire survey is +/- 4.9%.
2 As you may or may not know, Monroe County has been designated an Area
of Critical State Concern since 1974 and is the only remaining
area in the state of Florida with this designation. Area of Critical State
Concern designation protects resources and public facilities of major
statewide significance and limits how much, and where, residential and
commercial development can occur. Under this designation, the Department
of Community Affairs is required to make an annual evaluation of Monroe
County's progress toward addressing four critical needs: water quality
improvement, habitat protection, affordable housing, and hurricane evacuation.
3 Supporters of removing the Florida Keys’ Area of Critical State Concern
designation say that this is an unnecessary and burdensome
regulation that negatively impacts the local economy. They say this
designation takes control of all planning and land use decisions
away from local officials and puts it in Tallahassee. It limits
our ability to build new infrastructure like bridges, roads, and more
affordable housing. We
need to put local communities more in control of their planning
and development.
Opponents of removing the Florida Keys’ Area of Critical State Concern designation
say that this status is necessary to preserve the natural beauty of the Florida
Keys. Without this designation, developers would have free reign to influence
policies and to develop natural areas for new commercial and residential uses,
like high rise condos, and we would lose affordable housing. We have had
this protection for 30 years and it’s essentially what has kept the Keys unique
and not just an extension of Miami Beach.
Opponents of removing the Florida Keys’ Area of Critical State Concern
designation say that it is premature to remove this status from
the Keys while the area still faces problems with water quality and
the protection of animal habitat and natural areas. This is a backdoor attempt
to bypass the state’s legal process that protects the Keys. It gives
developers free reign and would dramatically change our way of life. The
Critical State Concern designation has been in place for three
decades and it’s essentially all that has kept the Keys from beginning
the southern extension of Miami Beach.
Lake Research Partners
CELINDA C. LAKE
President |
ALYSIA R. SNELL
Partner |
MICHAEL J. PERRY
Partner |
DAVID MERMIN
Partner |
|
DR. ROBERT G. MEADOW
Partner |
HEIDI VON SZELISKI
Partner |
DANIEL R. GOTOFF
Partner |
SUSAN KANNEL
Vice President |
JOSHUA ULIBARRI
Vice President |
